Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Sep 08

The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0442 ET - BHP continues to monitor the uranium market, but needs it to be at least three times the size to potentially become a pillar of the giant miner's portfolio, says Citi. "Uranium is only a $10 billion market currently and needs to be a circa $30 billion market in 2-3 decades to be one of BHP's pillars," it says. The bank's remarks follow recent meetings with BHP management. Discussions centered on the company's organic growth pipeline in copper, which appears to preclude near-term, large-scale M&A, says Citi. "Regarding copper, the buy vs build decision is heavily stacked in favor of organic growth (difficult to justify acquiring copper companies at over $80,000/ton of production when BHP is developing assets at $20,000-30,000/ton of production), according to the company," Citi says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0321 ET - European indexes are mixed in quiet early trade. Healthcare and consumer-facing stocks struggle, though AI-related stocks gain as the release of OpenAI's latest model boosts sentiment. The Stoxx 600 loses 0.15%. London's FTSE 100 slips 0.2% as miners fall, while drinks group Diageo falls 1.75%. The German Dax is flat. Chip maker Infineon jumps 2.6%, but pharmaceutical technology group Qiagen loses 2%. In Paris, the CAC 40 also trades flat, as gains for AI-related stocks counter further falls for luxuries. LVMH loses 0.9%. Italy's FTSE MIB adds 0.4%, while the Spanish IBEX 35 trades flat. The semiconductor-heavy AEX is flat. ASML gains 1.7%, but sliding software stocks weigh on the index. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0205 ET - The next permanent CEO of Lynas Rare Earths will face a major strategic question over Kalgoorlie, says Macquarie. The miner's processing facility there was built with surplus capacity to mitigate Malaysian licensing risk, which has subsequently eased, Macquarie says. "Prioritizing lower cost Malaysian C&R [cracking and leaching] could see Kalgoorlie operate at less than 60%" of its roughly 9,000-metric-ton annual neodymium-praseodymium capacity over the medium term, says the bank. Lower utilization could trigger an impairment test, says Macquarie. It could also provide headroom for future growth, including supporting sales to third-party separation facilities, it says. Macquarie has an outperform rating and target price of 20.00 Australian dollars a share on Lynas. Shares are up 1.6% at A$15.56. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0032 ET - The return to full processing capacity at Kingsgate's Chatree gold mine following a mill outage "is an important milestone and removes a key near-term operational overhang," says MA Moelis Australia. The miner expects to update investors on FY27 guidance by the end of September. MA says its own FY27 estimates already incorporate a softer 1Q to reflect the disruption and remediation works. It forecasts FY27 gold output of roughly 93,000 oz, generating about A$352 million of Ebitda. "With full nameplate processing capacity restored, KCN is well positioned to capture the benefit of a strong gold-price environment and a competitive cost base," MA says. It has a buy rating and target price of 6.45 Australian dollars a share on Kingsgate. Shares are down 1.1% at A$5.47. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2314 ET - Iron ore prices are higher in early Asia trade, thanks to a temporary decline in port arrivals, pre-holiday restocking by steel mills and elevated freight costs, says Huatai Futures analysts. They note gains are likely to be capped by ample seaborne supply and weak mill profitability. China's iron-ore arrivals are sharply lower, while global shipments remain elevated, showing near-term supply is tighter but may recover into the next cycle, they say. Demand recovery appears limited by weak steel-mill margins. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 1.5% higher at CNY745.5 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

2249 ET - Zijin Mining's multimetal synergies should reinforce its earnings resilience, say DBS Group Research analysts in commentary. The Chinese miner is a key beneficiary of the broad-based rally across metals such as gold and copper, the analysts say. They expect the company to progressively restore its copper output through 2H as certain mines' production recover and ramp up. The lithium segment could also be a key contributor, with output expected to accelerate in 2H, the analysts say. DBS maintains its buy rating and target prices of 51.00 yuan for its Shanghai-listed shares and 55.00 Hong Kong dollars for its Hong Kong-listed shares, citing rising volume growth and high mining margins. Shares last at 33.07 yuan in China and HK$36.28 in Hong Kong. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

1817 ET - Westgold Resources is poised to provide a new outlook this week, prompting Ord Minnett to consider what it might look like. Analyst Paul Kaner expects FY27 output of 405,000 oz of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,957/oz. "Thereafter, we see production growing to 484,000 oz by FY29 (consensus 508,000 oz) driven by Bluebird and the expansion of the Northern Ops milling infrastructure," Ord Minnett says. It expects growth capital of some A$720 million over the three years through FY29. That reflects spending on the mill expansion at the Meekatharra/Cue hubs offsetting the deferral of Higginsville capital as the company contemplates a 4 million tons/year expansion using ore from the Fletcher deposit. Ord Minnett retains a buy call on Westgold, which ended last week at A$6.48.

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