Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Sep 08

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1031 ET - Oil prices extend earlier gains, with Brent crude marching toward $100 a barrel as fresh exchanges of strikes between the U.S. and Iran keep the geopolitical risk premium high. The global oil benchmark is up 1.3% to $97.56 a barrel, while WTI futures rise 1.4% to $92.72 a barrel. "A sustained disruption to actual crude flows could quickly push prices above $100 a barrel," analysts at brokerage firm Kotak Securities. "Tightening inventories and stronger refined-product prices add support." In the U.S., Labor Day weekend travelers are facing the highest gas prices ever for this time of year. According to AAA, the national average price at the pump was $4.15 on Monday, a record high for the holiday. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1019 ET - Gold prices remain under pressure, with New York futures down 0.5% to $4,452.70 a troy ounce. "While increased haven demand may be one of the major supporting factors, it is the steady climb in bond yields and rising interest rate expectations which make the near-term gold forecast challenging, as zero yielding assets become less attractive in this environment," says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com. With the U.S. Labor Day holiday delaying this week's key data releases, investors now await the PPI report on Thursday and CPI data on Friday. "Should inflation come in hotter than anticipated, markets will cement expectations for a September rate hike, which could exert renewed pressure on the near-term gold forecast," Razaqzada says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0616 ET - Palm oil strengthened, with the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery rising by 50 ringgit to 4,979 ringgit a ton. Prices were likely supported by persistent concerns about outlook over El Nino-related hot and dry weather conditions that could affect yields and future production, Kenanga Futures writes in a note. Investors remain watchful of August industry data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board due later this week, it adds. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0442 ET - BHP continues to monitor the uranium market, but needs it to be at least three times the size to potentially become a pillar of the giant miner's portfolio, says Citi. "Uranium is only a $10 billion market currently and needs to be a circa $30 billion market in 2-3 decades to be one of BHP's pillars," it says. The bank's remarks follow recent meetings with BHP management. Discussions centered on the company's organic growth pipeline in copper, which appears to preclude near-term, large-scale M&A, says Citi. "Regarding copper, the buy vs build decision is heavily stacked in favor of organic growth (difficult to justify acquiring copper companies at over $80,000/ton of production when BHP is developing assets at $20,000-30,000/ton of production), according to the company," Citi says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0400 ET - Copper prices rise in early European trading despite growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month, weighing on the demand outlook for metals. Three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange are up 0.4% to $14,439 a metric ton, supported by continued supply concerns. Global copper output fell in the first half of the year and major producers such as Codelco and Freeport reporting sharp declines, ANZ analysts say, citing data from the International Copper Study Group. Chile has been a key drag, with production hitting its lowest second-quarter level in at least 19 years and the country cutting its annual output forecast for a second consecutive quarter. Meanwhile, concerns over potential U.S. import tariffs are drawing more copper toward the U.S., further tightening supply elsewhere. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0335 ET - Gold prices fall after surprisingly strong U.S. jobs data and renewed Middle East tensions reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates next week. In early European trading, New York futures are down 0.8% to $4,442.40 a troy ounce. "Gold has remained volatile around $4,400 after recovering from July lows near $4,000 an ounce," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. "This week's U.S. inflation data will be critical in determining whether the Fed tightens policy at its Sept. 15-16 meeting, with persistent price pressures likely to remain a near-term headwind." According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in a 58% probability of a rate hike this month. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

2314 ET - Iron ore prices are higher in early Asia trade, thanks to a temporary decline in port arrivals, pre-holiday restocking by steel mills and elevated freight costs, says Huatai Futures analysts. They note gains are likely to be capped by ample seaborne supply and weak mill profitability. China's iron-ore arrivals are sharply lower, while global shipments remain elevated, showing near-term supply is tighter but may recover into the next cycle, they say. Demand recovery appears limited by weak steel-mill margins. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 1.5% higher at CNY745.5 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

2252 ET - Palm oil rises in early Asian trading, driven by output worries amid El Nino conditions affecting both Malaysia and Indonesia, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Technical analysis suggests CPO futures may see some consolidation or profit-taking near resistance levels, it says. The market is likely to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy as long as prices remain above 4,850 ringgit-4,900 ringgit a ton, it adds. AmInvestment Bank expects palm oil prices to face resistance at 4,956 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,891 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery is up 22 ringgit at 4,951 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2249 ET - Zijin Mining's multimetal synergies should reinforce its earnings resilience, say DBS Group Research analysts in commentary. The Chinese miner is a key beneficiary of the broad-based rally across metals such as gold and copper, the analysts say. They expect the company to progressively restore its copper output through 2H as certain mines' production recover and ramp up. The lithium segment could also be a key contributor, with output expected to accelerate in 2H, the analysts say. DBS maintains its buy rating and target prices of 51.00 yuan for its Shanghai-listed shares and 55.00 Hong Kong dollars for its Hong Kong-listed shares, citing rising volume growth and high mining margins. Shares last at 33.07 yuan in China and HK$36.28 in Hong Kong. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

2222 ET - Copper edges lower in early Asian trading due to profit-taking. The metal has risen in recent sessions as supply side issues continue, ANZ analysts say. Top producer Chile posed its weakest second-quarter output in at least 19 years, they say. The country cuts its full-year production forecast for a second straight quarter and now expects a 2.6% decline, ANZ adds. The three-month LME copper contract is 0.2% lower at $14,389.00 a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

2048 ET - Gold falls in early Asian trade, with spot gold 0.1% lower at $4,423.34 a troy ounce. The precious metal faces near-term headwinds including the risk of a U.S. sticky inflation reading this week, that could reinforce expectations of a rate hike, says Peter A. Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals in a note. Stronger-than-expected economic data, such as last Friday's robust U.S. jobs report, also uphold risk-on sentiment and lower immediate safe-haven demand for gold, he adds. Higher rates typically diminish the allure of the non-interest-bearing precious metal.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

1817 ET - Westgold Resources is poised to provide a new outlook this week, prompting Ord Minnett to consider what it might look like. Analyst Paul Kaner expects FY27 output of 405,000 oz of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,957/oz. "Thereafter, we see production growing to 484,000 oz by FY29 (consensus 508,000 oz) driven by Bluebird and the expansion of the Northern Ops milling infrastructure," Ord Minnett says. It expects growth capital of some A$720 million over the three years through FY29. That reflects spending on the mill expansion at the Meekatharra/Cue hubs offsetting the deferral of Higginsville capital as the company contemplates a 4 million tons/year expansion using ore from the Fletcher deposit. Ord Minnett retains a buy call on Westgold, which ended last week at A$6.48.

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